Two events are independent if the probability of the first event happening has no impact on the probability of the second event happening. For example, the probability of rolling a 6 on a die will not ...

We elaborate on an alternative representation of conditional probability to the usual tree diagram. We term the representation “turtleback diagram” for its resemblance to the pattern on turtle shells.

Tree diagrams are a visual way of showing all possible outcomes of two or more events. Each branch is a possible outcome and is labelled with a probability. Two events are independent if the ...

Abstract: In this chapter, the authors discuss sample spaces, basic probability theory and random variables. Conditional probability leads to tree diagrams and the Bayes formula. Bernoulli trials pave ...

In decision modeling with influence diagrams, the most challenging task is probability elicitation from domain experts. It is usually very difficult for experts to directly assign precise ...

In medicine, diagnoses based on medical test results are probabilistic by nature. Unfortunately, cognitive illusions regarding the statistical meaning of test results are well documented among ...

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