A s China’s export machine sputters under the weight of 145% tariffs, jobs are at risk. Some 16m workers are involved in the production of goods bound for America, says Goldman Sachs, a bank. Nomura, another bank, projects a possible 5.7m job losses in the near term and 15.8m in the long run as the shock ripples through the economy.

You might think China is already losing the trade war. It isn’t—and it might even manage to come out on top, at least in the short term.